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Packers as an underdog, a good bet (for entertainment purposes only)

Thursday, Jan, 10 2013

I start this by saying I am not giving any gambling advice whatsoever.  This is a mere look at the numbers, and numbers don't always equal wins.  Just ask Cubs fans...

The Green Bay Packers enter Saturday Night's Divisional Playoff Game in San Francisco a 3-point underdog.  As Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press Gazette pointed out yesterday, it's a spot the Packers don't mind being in.

It is also a spot, by definition of a "Vegas underdog," the Packers have not spent much time in recently.  When they have been there, the people that have believed in them have been rewarded.  Here is a look at the numbers for Green Bay as an underdog.

- As Vandermause pointed out, the Packers 1-1 this year as an underdog, both outright and against the spread.
- Over the last 3-years, the Packers are 6-2 against the spread as an underdog and 5-3 overall.
- Since 1992, the Packers are 62-47 against the spread when an underdog.
- How about the playoffs?  In the last 3-years, the Packers are 5-1 against the spread in the post season and have the same record straight up.
- Revenge factor?  In the last 3-years, Green Bay has a 6-1 record straight up in games against a team that beat them earlier in the year.  They are 5-2 against the spread in those games.  Since 1992, the Packers are 48-29 straight up in revenge games.
- Saturday night also belongs to the Packers.  Since 1992, the Packers won 10 of the 11 games they have played on Saturday's with an 8-2-1 mark against the spread.

Again, this is not gambling advice, it is for entertainment purposes only.  The 49ers probably have trends that would show they are in a good spot, too.  It's just a look at the numbers for Green Bay in a position that they have not spent a lot of time in, as the underdog.

Follow Justin Hull on Twitter, Facebook or email any questions or comments.

posted by: The Home Stretch with Justin Hull 20 month(s) ago Comment On This Post


Badgers Next 11 = Brutal

Wednesday, Jan, 9 2013

I am sending out a challenge.  Can anyone find a harder schedule in college hoops over the next 11-games than what the Badgers are preparing to go through?  I think not. 

Wisconsin is 11-4 overall including their 2-0 start Big Ten with (ugly) wins over Penn State and Nebraska last week.  Wins in the Big 10 this season may be hard to come by which could put Wisconsin's run of 14-straight NCAA Tournament appearances in jeopardy.  The next 11-games will either pay big dividends or just highlight the writing on the wall this Badgers team.

Next 11 for the Badgers
Jan. 12th - #13 Illinois
Jan. 15th - @ #5 Indiana
Jan. 19th - Iowa
Jan. 22nd - #22 Michigan State
Jan. 26th - #8 Minnesota
Jan. 29th - @ #15 Ohio State
Feb. 3rd - @ #13 Illinois
Feb. 6th - Iowa
Feb. 9th - #2 Michigan
Feb. 14th - @ #8 Minnesota
Feb. 17th - #15 Ohio State

9 of the next 11 against ranked teams, only Iowa fits outside the top 25.  And you can't sleep on this Iowa team, they beat Wisconsin twice last year.  After this stretch, the Badgers will only have one of their final five, a trip to East Lansing, against top 25 opponents.

YIKES!  Get ready to find out how legit this team is.

Follow Justin Hull on Twitter, Facebook or email any questions or comments.

posted by: The Home Stretch with Justin Hull 20 month(s) ago Comment On This Post


Fans I can't stand

Monday, Jan, 7 2013

Tonight, #1 Notre Dame and #2 Alabama lock up in the "What Fans do I Despise the Least" Bowl, or what most fans know it as, (the soon to be defunct in a 2-team format) National Championship Game.  Anyway, I will be cheering for Alabama.  This pains me.  It's like someone is forcing me to pick between the Cubs or the Cardinals, Michigan or Ohio State, or (if I was a Packer fan) Chicago or Minnesota. 

Credit to my guy Doug Russell of WTMJ Radio in Milwaukee who posed this question on facebook which I (and probably everyone else in Wisconsin Sports Radio) will be turning into a show topic.  "What fans do you despise the most?"  Annoying, stubborn, uneducated, or whatever you want to the reason to be, you be the judge.

Here are my Top 5 in order:

#1.) Notre Dame Football - I have never understood the fascination with the Golden Domes.  I get it, they were once really really good.  I was 12 years-old.  That was 19-years ago.  I can't stand watching them on TV and the high brown notion that their independent status brings.  Can't stand them.

#2.) SEC Football - I am being very vague in the category label, but people outside of SEC know exactly what I mean.  Yes, the SEC is the best conference in college football.  This does not mean they are a step ABOVE the NCAA like fans think.  Unfortunately, the SEC does rule college football so it's a matter of getting use to it.

#3.) St. Louis Cardinals Fans - One word: hypocritical.  Seriously, they judge EVERYTHING other fans/teams/coaches do but have no clue that their team does the exact same things!  Also, let people decide who are the most traditional fans in baseball, you don't need to tell people.

#4.) Soccer Fans - I don't care about your sport.  I don't want to care about your sport.  I never will care about your sport.  Move to Europe.

#5.) Boston Red Sox Fans - Everything they hate about Yankee fans, they are...and then some.  Over the last 10-years, they have been shooting up the charts faster than M.C Hammer fell off them!

By the way; I don't "despise" people in a literal sense, but in a sports world sense you should get my drift...It's exactly why I love sports, conversations such as this.

By the way #2; I left out specific groups of in-state sports fans on purpose.  Maybe I can go there another day.

Follow Justin Hull on Twitter, Facebook or email any questions or comments.

posted by: The Home Stretch with Justin Hull 20 month(s) ago Comment On This Post


Playoff Predictions

Wednesday, Jan, 2 2013

In the weeks leading up to the end of the season, I would go through the "if the playoffs started today" scenarios.  We can't do that anymore as the season is over and we have the playoffs staring us down this weekend.  So now it's time to put my neck out there and give you my playoff picks!

***My preseason (actually, my pick the day after last year's Super Bowl) was Green Bay over Houston.  Just to note that I am wavering from it.***

Wild Card Weekend
Packers over Vikings:  Rodgers > Ponder no matter how good A.P is
Seahawks over Redskins:  Seahawks will be to physical for the Redskins
Texans over Bengals:  Texans have struggled, but the Bengals don't "wow" me
Colts over Ravens:  The emotion of Pagano being there will be the difference

Divisional Weekend
49ers over Packers:  49ers defense will be the difference
Seahawks over Falcons: Sorry Atlanta, your stigma will stick with you
Broncos over Colts:  I get my dream Peyton vs Indy matchup, Colts get the nightmare finish
Patriots over Texans: Brady vs Manning is destiny

Conference Championships
49ers over Seahawks:  Jim Harbaugh will out coach Pete Carroll
Patriots over Broncos: I really hate picking against Bill and Tom, even thought I should

Super Bowl
Patriots over 49ers:  Brady with a game winning touchdown drive...why not?

Follow Justin Hull on Twitter, Facebook or email any questions or comments.

posted by: The Home Stretch with Justin Hull 20 month(s) ago Comment On This Post


If the NFL Playoffs started today...

Tuesday, Dec, 18 2012

Considering the number of BIG GAMES in week 15, there is no shock to me whatsoever with the amount of change we saw this week.  The Giants and Bears drop out in the NFC while the Steelers are out of the picture completely with a loss this week.  So once again, if the playoffs started today with my current picks.

NFC Seeds
1.) Atlanta Falcons (12-2)
2.) San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1)
3.) Green Bay Packers (10-4)
4.) Washington Redksins (9-5)
5.) Seattle Seahawks (9-5)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (8-6)

NFC Wild Card Round
Packers over Vikings
Seahawks over Redskins

NFC Divisional Round
Packers over 49ers
Falcons over Seahawks

NFC Championship Game
Packers over Falcons

AFC Seeds
1.) Houston Texans (11-2)
2.) Denver Broncos (11-3)
3.) New England Patriots (10-4)
4.) Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
5.) Indianapolis Colts (9-5)
6.) Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)

AFC Wild Card Round
Patriots over Bengals
Ravens over Colts

AFC Divisional Round
Texans over Ravens
Patriots over Broncos

AFC Championship Game
Patriots over Texans

Super Bowl
Patriots over Packers

***Again, I am picking Green Bay if they play in San Francisco and Atlanta.  That is once again how things would play out (in my mind)I probably will regret that.  Patriots are still the team to beat in my mind despite the hiccup Sunday night...***

Follow Justin Hull on Twitter, Facebook or email any questions or comments.

posted by: The Home Stretch with Justin Hull 21 month(s) ago Comment On This Post


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