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Tue, August 26, 2014

Post-Preseason Value Reaction

After the smoke had cleared from the off-season free agency moves and rookie draft, speculation led to many sleepers losing their sleeper value as they rocketed up draft boards as fantasy players and analysts fed on the hype.  Now that we have some preseason game-tape, a handful of those preseason hyped sleepers are sliding back down boards and once again present value if you can look through a sloppy start to their 2014 campaign.

Giovani Bernard – He has been mostly sluggish and unimpressive with his few preseason touches as he adjusts to Hue Jackson’s straight-forward approach.  I do expect the rookie Hill to get a handful of useful carries every game to eat into Bernard’s workload but that lends to a fresh Bernard in the fourth quarter, and his pass catching isn’t going away.  RUN, don’t walk to draft him in the late 2nd or 3rd if you’re lucky enough.

Bishop Sankey was as hyped as they come from the rookie running back crop, and in early drafts was being selected as early as the third round.  His preseason foibles and inability to separate from his competition Shonn Greene mean he is again sliding back to round eight where he presents substantial value again.  Build a solid roster and look for him to emerge as the season progresses.

All the <edit: Washington> players – They played some very solid defenses with top-of-league pass rush and the offense looked absolutely putrid.  Trust me, when they are facing the Cowboys you’ll be happy you took a chance on any of these players who fell into your lap way later than you expected in your draft.

T.Y. Hilton had a mostly down 2013 with some HUGE games mixed in to float his overall statline.  People were forecasting a breakout in his third season, until Hakeem Nicks appeared effective in preseason and Reggie Wayne astoundingly recovered from an ACL tear just 6 months after the fact.  As a result, the once top-20 candidate Hilton has fallen to the mid-20’s on people’s boards but he still has the kind of upside with Luck at the helm and a weak defense forcing more throwing to buoy his 2014 potential.

Victor Cruz was eyeballing a bounceback 2014 with Ben Mcadoo fixing whatever ails Eli Manning.  The entire team has floundered out of the gates, and Cruz’s stock has plummeted.  He currently sits behind the likes of Edelman, Garcon, V Jax, Desean, etc. but Cruz’s skillset will perfectly match McAdoo’s plans once they get rolling and he’ll outplay all of the above players after a few weeks of adjustment.  A bad o-line means he will be a strong PPR play with the quick bubble screens and slants. 

Arian Foster has slip-slided due to the injury concern and his no-show to early camp/preseason games but he now presents a value if you went WR heavy early in your draft.  I’m not endorsing this as the old Foster, but he’ll be better than his draft-slot in the games he plays.

Le’Veon Bell – another guy that people are overreacting to.  Lots of NFL players smoke pot.  That doesn’t make it OK, it is a banned substance, but I don’t believe it inhibits their ability come game time on Sunday.  The suspension process is always lengthy and arduous and as the league sorts through the Josh Gordon case and tries to justify the short suspension to Ray Rice, I don’t expect a major suspension to Bell in the near term.  Plan a two week contingency like Bernard Pierce, but then enjoy a 2nd round back that you got in the 4th round the rest of the year.  Remind you of anyone from last year?  Oh yeah, Le’Veon Bell.

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